While I do not know much about politics, I know that today is a really important day for the future of the UK. Today, May 7th, is the day when the future of the country is in the hand of all English citizens. Every single one of them.
“Most unpredictable election ever” – The BBC
“It is impossible to say who will be prime minister after the election in five months’ time” – The Guardian
“One in four STILL don’t know who they will vote for” – Daily Mail
Indeed, this election has been qualified as “the most unpredictable of this generation” by the BBC because of the closeness of percentage between Conservatives and Labour. But more than just being tight, this is also a pretty complicated issue, even for people following politics. I don’t blame you, and that is why I am going to try and help you understand all about it.
In previous elections, one party has always been the favourite and became the leader party without too much doubt. Even in the last election, in 2010, the Conservative Party was pretty confident concerning the outcome of the elections, despite the fact that they knew they would not get the majority of seats in the House of Commons.
This year, experts predicted that 34% of people would vote for Conservatives and 33% for Labour, which makes it pretty unlikely that one party will get the right amount of seats, knowing that they need at least 326 of them.
Poll by the BBC on 6th of May
That is the whole reason why every single vote is going to count today, but while many people complain about the politics of the country, not many people actually know whom they are going to vote for.
For the past five years, there has been a number of mistrusts and scandals, such as the MP’s expenses scandal and unfulfilled promises, which caused people to lose faith in politicians, and led the country to the actual situation.
What can happen?
So to understand what happens after tonight, here is what I was able to understand:
As it is very unlikely that either Conservatives or Labour will win an outright majority, it is expected that a hung Parliament will be formed. Which brings us to two possible outcomes:
* The first option would be that Conservatives renew the coalition with the Liberal Democrat, as it is currently the case, but that might not be enough to get the majority. Because of the rise in popularity of the SNP, the Lib Dem are expected to get less votes than they did in the last election, and that would then mean that Conservatives will have to add another party to their coalition.
There are still some debates about the third party that would join this alliance, but it could potentially be UKIP. However, that would only be the case if David Cameron agrees to organise a EU referendum by the end of this year, to possibly leave Europe.
*The second option would be a coalition between the Labour and other parties, which have not yet been really defined. However, Ed Miliband has already publicly ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the SNP, but has favoured one with the SDLP and the Green Party.
What would it mean for the Conservatives to form this coalition?
Whereas Conservatives are used to the coalition with the Lib Dem, forming an alliance with UKIP would be a first, and it might cause some pretty important changes in the policies.
Left to right: Cameron, Farage and Clegg
- First it would mean that the immigration policies might have to be hardened: while Conservatives wants to reform the EU rules, UKIP is wishing for very restrictive rules on immigration.
- Secondly, each of the three parties have very diverse ideas concerning whether or not to stay in the EU: on one hand the Lib Dem wants to stay within Europe, and on the other hand UKIP defends its position to leave it. In the middle of those two opinions, we have Cameron undecided about this issue.
What would it mean for the Labour to form this coalition?
A coalition between Labours, SDLP and the Green Party is possible, however it is unlikely that this is going to cover enough seats to get up to the majority. Despite the refusal of Ed Miliband to work with the SNP, some senior Labour MPs claimed that it might be the only option to become the leader party. The option of a coalition with the Lib Dem is also possible, and some Labour MPs said that this alliance would bring greater legitimacy and stability to the government.